Steve Green picks out the battleground states; you can read all his assumptions here.
I don’t disagree with any of ‘em, although I do think that Big O has all but lost Florida at this point. There’s something he keeps forgetting: it’s also a Gulf State. No, it’s not quite like the other Gulf states, and its dependence on tourism is deep enough that people want to approach oil production quite carefully there—not that it’s anything to be cavalier about anywhere along that coast.
But people in the Sunshine State can see the economic devastation of Obama’s permitorium—up close, and far more personal than the President will ever let himself look at it.