As the Chicago teacher strike ended with a whimper, a new (or rather, very old) issue comes back to the fore: their pensions… and will they get paid?
Like many other workers relying on pensions for their retirement, Chicago’s teachers have backed themselves into a corner. Unless the fund’s investments see a miraculous turnaround, retired teachers will be relying on payments from the city to make up the massive gap in pension funding. Unfortunately, city finances are in dire straits as well, and the more money that goes into the pension fund, the less will be available to pay current teachers the higher salaries secured by their brand new contract.
Now that the strike is over, the unions should focus on the real problem.
Ah, but surely the Federal government will come to the rescue!
Uh, about that….
But the new laws have trimmed just $100 billion out of the $900 billion gap between what the states and their workers put into their retirement plans and what the states owe in retirement benefits, according to estimates prepared for The Wall Street Journal by researchers at Boston College.
Unfunded liabilities in many states grew to troubling levels after investment losses in the 2008 financial crisis depleted pension assets. While most states have approved some form of pension cuts, many have opted to apply those changes only to workers who have yet to be hired.
That means most of the savings won't be realized for decades, when the most expensive retirement benefits come off the books. Changes made to the retirement plans of newly hired workers are expected to reduce pension costs by 25% over the next 35 years, according to Boston College estimates.
And that's just a point-in-time estimate for the accrued unfunded liability… that sucker can continue to grow. Remember this graph?
Those are the projected pension costs for the Chicago teachers plan – the amount they're supposed to contribute each year. The big jump is because they passed a "funding relief" bill that let them pay less than they really should have been these past several years. Because somehow, miraculously, money will appear in 2014. Along with the mythical savings of Obamacare. (Prediction: another "funding relief" bill is passed in 2013)
A bailout will not be forthcoming. Part of the issue is that unions, especially public employee unions, don't have the political clout that once they had. Who are they going to vote for – Republicans? It is to laugh.
More to the point, the gap is way too big. Sure, one can throw a few million towards corrupt "green" enterprises, but a trillion to various profligate states? Ha ha ha. You got your trillion-dollar dip with that old "stimulus" plan. How did that work out?
The situation is bad enough with Medicare, Obamacare, and Social Security – you think there will be political capital to give money to relatively generous pensions that few in the private sector get? For jobs with fewer hours and days than most people have to work (I'm talking about the teachers — they outnumber and outcost police and firefighters)? Yeah, that's a tough sell. Even if Obama were president for the next four years and Pelosi magically managed to recapture the House, it would be a no-go.
So public employees — keep an eagle eye on your pension funds. Every contribution holiday, every pension obligation bond issued instead of a real contribution – these are not things that make your pensions more palatable to the public. These are things that make it less and less likely that you will actually get your promised payments. Do not assume you will be made whole when the money runs out.
I am not a pension actuary, so I have no direct vested interest in telling these unions that they really need to hire their own actuaries to make projections to walk through various scenarios. Do not assume that politicians have your interests in mind at all, forget about best interests. Figure out what sorts of contributions you need to fully fund the plan, and if that's not politically feasible, start thinking about exit plans.
Do not depend on courts to have the magical ability to make money appear out of nothing, and do not think there will be bailouts forthcoming. GM got in line before you did.
Starless on September 24, 2012 at 7:09 am said:
"they really need to hire their own actuaries to make projections to walk through various scenarios"
Do you think that maybe they already did and then ignored those projections?
Meep on September 24, 2012 at 11:36 am said:
I think they'd rather not know.
If they do this, they have no requirement to publicly share the info with anybody, of course. So I wouldn't know if they did this or not.
Starless on September 24, 2012 at 12:25 pm said:
I was thinking of all of the times I've had administrators and managers ask for a technical analysis and then when that analysis gave them an answer they didn't like, they just pretended as though it never happened.
Being primarily faith-based organizations, I presume that happens a lot in unions.
eatingdogfood on September 24, 2012 at 8:44 am said:
RICO Conspiracy; The Unions and the Democrats!
Cook County Commoner on September 24, 2012 at 9:23 am said:
Illinois state and local government employee pensions will be paid, no matter what, well into the future. The campaign contributions, election-time voters and actual votes from the government employee unions are the only thing that keep Deomocrats and many pro-government worker Respublicans in office. Remember, for each government worker and retiree there is at least one dependent. Factoring in the non-voting apathetics, this group plus those that automatically vote Democratic will provide sufficient power for continued government worker retirement liquidity.
Where will the money come from? Increased property and sales taxes. Reduced police, which has already caused a spike in crime in Chicago. Reduced headcount in other agencies. The state Dept of Children and Family services is already earmarked for cuts. The Chicago schools will increasingly go charter. And there's lots more to sell.
The funding problem will be kicked out into the future, somehow, leaving an empty husk behind. But the current vested workers and retirees (judges, teachers, polie and fire, street cleaners, legislators, etc) will be paid 100 cents on the dollar regardless of the misery visited on everyone else. Count on it.
Tough Love on September 24, 2012 at 10:57 am said:
Sounds like you're counting on it …. LOL
Meep on September 24, 2012 at 11:39 am said:
Yes, because a city cannot lose its population rapidly due to a hostile economic environment.
Oh wait
As a quarter of the population left Detroit in a ten-year period, perhaps Chicago should consider the same scenario. It doesn't take all that long for these plans to fall apart.
Meep on September 24, 2012 at 11:44 am said:
Perhaps this is a better one:
http://www.conservativecommune.com/2012/03/city-of-denial-detroit/
But you've heard me say that before, haven't you
Tough Love on September 24, 2012 at 10:54 am said:
Meep, you said …"Every contribution holiday, every pension obligation bond issued instead of a real contribution – these are not things that make your pensions more palatable to the public. These are things that make it less and less likely that you will actually get your promised payments. Do not assume you will be made whole when the money runs out."
Unless I'm mistaken, while Pension Obligation Bonds often screw the Taxpayers (by not working out as planned), they do indeed put REAL MONEY (the proceeds of the Bond Sale) into the pension funds (for the exclusive benefit of Participants, not Taxpayers).
Is my understanding not correct ?
Meep on September 24, 2012 at 11:43 am said:
Keep an eye on Stockton's bankruptcy.
One of its big debts is a POB… that it owes to Calpers (HMMM) among other creditors. Should be interesting to see how much/if Calpers gets stiffed in its bankruptcy, because many of the other creditors is not having any of this "Calpers first in line" crap.
That said, POBs tend to have a little less direct effect. Usually it's the state or municipality's debt and the pension fund gets the cash. But if the muni/state has to service that debt, that's sucking out future cash that could've gone to contributions. It's just fakery to make the public finances seem stronger.
Tough Love on September 24, 2012 at 8:46 pm said:
That's my point, there's no downside of POB's to the DB Plan participants, only to Taxpayers.
Rex the Wonder Dog! on September 24, 2012 at 12:13 pm said:
"That said, POBs tend to have a little less direct effect. Usually it's the state or municipality's debt and the pension fund gets the cash. But if the muni/state has to service that debt, that's sucking out future cash that could've gone to contributions. It's just fakery to make the public finances seem stronger."
POB's are scam used by weak politicians who have no backbbone, or are just dirtbag slimeballs, to kick the can down the road an dmake other spay fo rthe mistakes they ARE currently making.
Ted Steele on October 9, 2012 at 11:09 am said:
Poor Rex the Poodle! is stilll 0 for 13 ™ in his predictions about the potential for pensdion law and rollbacks !!!!!