Reminder to my fellow Romneyites: sign up to make phone calls - I'm probably not going to be doing much of that til the end of this week… if at all.
First up, popular vote polling:
Reminder on Unskewed Polls outlier: that's their election day prediction, the other points are poll averages (their "unskewed" poll). I'm keeping the outlier to check against what happens.
RCP: Obama, 46.7%; Romney, 47.7% (both went down a few tenths of a percentage point… Gary Johnson & Jill Stein must be catching on fire!)
Nate Silver: Obama, 50.4%; Romney, 48.7% (barely moved for Obama)
Unskewed polls: Obama, 45.8%; Romney, 50.0% (unchanged)
Electoral College projections:
RCP: Obama, 201; Romney, 191; Toss-up, 146 (no change)
RCP No Tossup: Obama, 290; Romney, 248 (no change)
Nate Silver: Obama, 296.6; Romney, 241.4 (shift of 1 vote to Obama)
Unskewed polls: Obama, 179; Romney, 359 (no change)
Win probabilities: (will not necessarily add to 1)
Nate Silver: Obama, 74.6%; Romney 25.4% (movement of 1 percentage point to Obama)
InTrade: Obama, 62.6%; Romney, 37.3% (a little to Romney)
FYI: I live in Westchester County in NY. The election prediction tracker may go down for some days. Of course, it may that nothing moves while I'm lacking internet.
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