First, for my fellow Romney supporters, I highly recommend signing up for making phone calls - I've used this sort of system before for making calls in prior years. They give you a script, the system is set up so that the Caller ID shows Republican call center #, and the people you're contacting at this point are registered Republicans. I signed up for a specific group (Catholics for Nevada), but you can also do generic.
It can be fun if you're like me – a conservative in a state that is a foregone conclusion for Obama – getting a chance to talk with fellow conservatives in swing states. Yes, they have the script, but generally when somebody says "Yeah, I've been waiting for years for this election!" I get to chatting. Makes one feel real good. May also explain why I may be a bit sunny compared to the results we see below…. but enough about my mental state right now.
First up, popular vote polling:
Reminder on Unskewed Polls outlier: that's their election day prediction, the other points are poll averages (their "unskewed" poll). I'm keeping the outlier to check against what happens.
RCP: Obama, 46.9%; Romney, 47.9% (all of 0.1%age point reduction for Obama)
Nate Silver: Obama, 50.3%; Romney, 48.7% (barely moved for Romney)
Unskewed polls: Obama, 45.8%; Romney, 50.0% (unchanged)
Electoral College projections:
RCP: Obama, 201; Romney, 191; Toss-up, 146 (no change)
RCP No Tossup: Obama, 290; Romney, 248 (no change)
Nate Silver: Obama, 295.5; Romney, 242.5 (shift of 0.1 to Obama)
Unskewed polls: Obama, 179; Romney, 359 (no change)
Win probabilities: (will not necessarily add to 1)
Nate Silver: Obama, 73.6%; Romney 26.4% (movement of 1 percentage point to Romney)
InTrade: Obama, 63.5%; Romney, 36.5% (no change)
I don't often link to Politico, but when I do, it's to stories like this: Obama's fuzzy Ohio early vote math. Dude, give the man a break – he never mastered math above 7th grade!
FYI: I live in Westchester County in NY. The election prediction tracker may go down for some days.
ModeratePoli on October 28, 2012 at 3:34 pm said:
Thanks for the scoop on the Des Moines Register.