Well, I may not be getting power back for a week. Woo hoo!
I'm sitting in a Barnes & Noble in Waterbury, CT, and figure – what the hey? Let's see if the numbers have moved at all. There will be no data point for Oct 30, alas.
Reminder to my fellow Romneyites: sign up to make phone calls - I'm probably not going to be doing much of that til the end of this week… if at all.
First up, popular vote polling:
Reminder on Unskewed Polls outlier: that's their election day prediction, the other points are poll averages (their "unskewed" poll). I'm keeping the outlier to check against what happens.
RCP: Obama, 47.1%; Romney, 47.9% (both went up a few tenths of a percentage point… there went those third party candidates)
Nate Silver: Obama, 50.4%; Romney, 48.5% (barely moved for Romney)
Unskewed polls: Obama, 45.8%; Romney, 50.7% (a little more to Romney)
Electoral College projections:
RCP: Obama, 201; Romney, 191; Toss-up, 146 (no change)
RCP No Tossup: Obama, 281; Romney, 257 (shift of Colorado back to Romney)
Nate Silver: Obama, 299; Romney, 239 (shift of 2 votes to Obama)
Unskewed polls: Obama, 179; Romney, 359 (no change for ultimate projection)
Win probabilities: (will not necessarily add to 1)
Nate Silver: Obama, 77.4%; Romney 22.6% (movement of 3 percentage points to Obama)
InTrade: Obama, 64.8%; Romney, 35.3% (2 percentage points to Obama)
Dan Collins on October 31, 2012 at 1:09 pm said:
Hey, glad you're okay.
Odd how much influence Nate Silver has on InTrade. Apparently.
I guess people who like gambling like Obama.