Hey look – the president has a plan! I knew he'd finish his homework eventually.
Let's take a look at the slowly moving numbers, shall we?
Electoral College projections:
RCP: Obama, 201; Romney, 206; Toss-up, 131
RCP No Tossup: Obama, 281; Romney, 257
Nate Silver: Obama, 290.8; Romney, 247.2
Unskewed polls: Obama, 217; Romney, 321 (whoa nelly… that would be awesome)
Popular vote projections:
RCP: Obama, 47.1; Romney, 47.7
Nate Silver: Obama, 50.1%; Romney, 48.8%
Unskewed polls: Obama, 45.0%; Romney, 50.1%
Win probabilities: (will not necessarily add to 1)
Nate Silver: Obama, 70.3%; Romney 29.7%
InTrade: Obama, 58.9%; Romney, 41.0%
So Nate Silver is saying Obama is gaining, InTrade says he's falling back… and Unskewed polls… has a decidedly different take.
Obviously, somebody here is wrong.
UPDATE by Dan:
A couple more things. Here is some tabbed info from PPP regarding independents who viewed the last debate.
Among Independents, 32% said yes, they were more likely to vote for Obama after the debate, and 48% said no. Forty-seven percent said yes, they were more likely to vote for Romney after the debate, while 35% said no.
Abroad, Obama is overwhelmingly supported, so he definitely has a fundraising edge there. I have to say, I'm a little disappointed with Mexicans and Poles.