The Necropolitan Sentinel

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Election prediction tracking, Oct 23; UPDATE by Dan

 Hey look – the president has a plan!  I knew he'd finish his homework eventually.

 

Let's take a look at the slowly moving numbers, shall we?

 

Electoral College projections:

RCP:  Obama, 201; Romney, 206; Toss-up, 131

RCP No Tossup: Obama, 281; Romney, 257

Nate Silver: Obama, 290.8; Romney, 247.2

Unskewed polls: Obama, 217; Romney, 321 (whoa nelly… that would be awesome)

 

Popular vote projections:

RCP: Obama, 47.1; Romney, 47.7

Nate Silver: Obama, 50.1%; Romney, 48.8%

Unskewed polls: Obama, 45.0%; Romney, 50.1%

 

Win probabilities: (will not necessarily add to 1)

Nate Silver: Obama, 70.3%; Romney 29.7%

InTrade:  Obama, 58.9%; Romney, 41.0%

 

 

So Nate Silver is saying Obama is gaining, InTrade says he's falling back… and Unskewed polls… has a decidedly different take.

Obviously, somebody here is wrong.

UPDATE by Dan:

A couple more things. Here is some tabbed info from PPP regarding independents who viewed the last debate.

Among Independents, 32% said yes, they were more likely to vote for Obama after the debate, and 48% said no. Forty-seven percent said yes, they were more likely to vote for Romney after the debate, while 35% said no. 

Rasmussen has Romney with a 4-point lead among all voters, and a 5-point lead in swing states.

Abroad, Obama is overwhelmingly supported, so he definitely has a fundraising edge there. I have to say, I'm a little disappointed with Mexicans and Poles.

Posted under: Featured Propaganda, Uncategorized

About Meep

Mary Pat Campbell, aka Meep, mainly blogs on public pensions, unions, and finance. She's conservative Southerner who chose to live in liberal Yankeeland. Crazy lady.

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