I got a fully stocked liquor cabinet. Bring on the storm.
First up, popular vote polling:
Let me explain that outlier for Unskewed Polls, which I'm going to leave there: that is their own prediction of what the popular vote will be. I don't think they'll update that guess except to ratchet it higher. I'm keeping this point on the graph so I can compare against the final result.
The other points on the Unskewed Polls graph are their average of the other polls, just as RCP also does an average poll result. I'll keep that, as it updates daily.
RCP: Obama, 47.0%; Romney, 47.9% (no change)
Nate Silver: Obama, 50.3%; Romney, 48.6% (barely moved for Obama)
Unskewed polls: Obama, 45.8%; Romney, 50.0% (same as yesterday)
Electoral College projections:
RCP: Obama, 201; Romney, 191; Toss-up, 146 (no change)
RCP No Tossup: Obama, 290; Romney, 248 (changed Colorado to Obama…hmm)
Nate Silver: Obama, 295.4; Romney, 242.6 (shift of about 1 electoral vote to Obama)
Unskewed polls: Obama, 179; Romney, 359 (no change)
Win probabilities: (will not necessarily add to 1)
Nate Silver: Obama, 74.4%; Romney 25.6% (movement of 1 percentage point to Obama)
InTrade: Obama, 63.5%; Romney, 36.5% (movement of 2 percentage points to Obama)
So, let us look at some things to have fun:
But more seriously, I highly recommend the type of voting set up we currently have in New York: Scantron type sheets that are fed through a machine. If you screwed up, it spits the ballot back out at you. You can do a handcount of the paper ballots afterwards, too.
That may be the upside of a Romney blowout: there will definitely be screams of stolen elections (no matter how big the margin… "The fix was supposed to be in!"), and then Republicans in all sorts of states say "You know, it is disturbing. Let us put in these safeguards: paper ballots, voter ID requirements, no early voting, etc." There will be Obama supporters who honestly worry that the election was rigged and would go along with that. The disingenuous lefties… not so much. But maybe they'll be willing to demand the paper ballot fix.