So this morning, I saw the Gallup results:
Very nice. Let's go to the graph:
Those are using rolling averages, which is why we're not seeing a breakeven positioning.
But look at those titles: "registered voters". A lot of those people will not vote. I know Gallup has a "likely voter" screen. When do we get those polls? They had likely voter models used as of October 7, 2010 for those elections. Those were only congressional elections – one doesn't expect as in-depth an approach on those off years.
So…. what's the hold up, guys?
jefferson101 on October 8, 2012 at 6:01 pm said:
I'm still confused about how they identify even "registered voters", let alone "likely voters".
It's got to be by asking them if they are registered to vote, and if they intend to do so. So I've got to ask how those answers are any more believable than anything else they get told. I don't know about anyone else, but I don't consider it immoral to lie to pollsters, so what they get told totally depends on the mood I'm in. If they call me three times, they will probably get three different answers.
meep on October 9, 2012 at 8:49 am said:
I assume that they can get registered voter lists…. but yeah, it's probably that they ask if the person is registered to vote or not.
I know for likely voter determination, one of the questions is if the person knows where their polling station is.
jefferson101 on October 9, 2012 at 4:54 pm said:
They ask me the one about knowing where my polling place is, I'm going to have to know if they mean the one I'm registered at, or the one I use.
(And don't be looking at me like that. This is Arkansas, and vote fraud a tradition and all that! ) Actually, I very seldom vote at my precinct. I make a practice of going down to the Courthouse in Hope and voting early. They usually have exactly one voting machine at my precinct, and I wind up waiting three or four hours to vote if I go there. If I go vote the Friday before the election, it only takes about 20 or 30 minutes to get in and out.
I think I just gave myself away as one of those likely voters, but I may not admit that to just whoever calls me up on the telephone. I still think they get lied to a lot more than they want to admit even in normal times, and with the Bradley effect in full force this year, it's probably well into double digits.