So this morning, I saw the Gallup results:
Very nice. Let's go to the graph:
Those are using rolling averages, which is why we're not seeing a breakeven positioning.
But look at those titles: "registered voters". A lot of those people will not vote. I know Gallup has a "likely voter" screen. When do we get those polls? They had likely voter models used as of October 7, 2010 for those elections. Those were only congressional elections – one doesn't expect as in-depth an approach on those off years.
So…. what's the hold up, guys?