…and it may be coming from my house. Woot!
(I do have power back at home, but no internet yet.)
FTR, I am not doing this tracker as "fear porn". It's because I think many of these guys, most especially Nate Silver, are way off base. And I'm keeping a record so I can stomp all over them once the results come out.
I could do some sophisticated analyses as to why they're wrong, but 1. nobody is paying me to do this, and I need to prioritize time. It's fairly easy for me to update some numbers and 2. being an unpaid analyst in this matter, I'm going to wait for the result so that I will not be wrong. MWA HA HA HA.
Okay, of course I can be wrong. My prediction: Romney at 52% of popular vote, with over 300 electoral votes. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If I'm right… oh baby, have I got a post for you (TWSS).
Let's hit it.
First up, popular vote polling:
Reminder on Unskewed Polls outlier: that's their election day prediction, the other points are poll averages (their "unskewed" poll). I'm keeping the outlier to check against what happens.
RCP: Obama, 47.5%; Romney, 47.2% (barely moved)
Nate Silver: Obama, 50.5%; Romney, 48.4% ( 0.2% change to Obama)
Unskewed polls: Obama, 45.7%; Romney, 50.4% (unchanged)
Electoral College projections:
RCP: Obama, 201; Romney, 191; Toss-up, 146 (no change)
RCP No Tossup: Obama, 290; Romney, 248 (no change)
Nate Silver: Obama, 303.4; Romney, 234.6 (shift of 2 votes to Obama)
Unskewed polls: Obama, 179; Romney, 359 (no change for ultimate projection)
Win probabilities: (will not necessarily add to 1)
Nate Silver: Obama, 80.9%; Romney 19.1% (2-ish percentage points to Obama)
InTrade: Obama, 66.6%; Romney, 33.5% (2 percentage points to Romney)
